According to the new forecast expected economic growth in the effective euro area will slow next year. This will reflect, among other things impact the outcome of the referendum in the UK on economic sentiment. In 2018, growth in the countries of our main trading partners will return to two percent. The decline in industrial producer prices in the euro area, mainly reflecting the low prices of energy commodities, have already begun to subside. Early next year, then these production rates will return to annual growth. Also, foreign consumer inflation will gradually increase. But even by the end of 2018 reaches two percent. View of three-month EURIBOR interest rate on the entire forecast horizon is negative. It thus reflects the still accommodative monetary policy of the European Central Bank. This contributes to consumer expectations of further weakening of the euro against the US dollar. Brent oil price outlook assumes a gradual increase.
Das Papier beleuchtet mit verschiedenen Farben der Union den Mitgliedsländern und der europäischen Flagge mit dem Symbol der Währung als Euro-Zone.
Die Namen der Staaten, die eine prekäre finanzielle Situation haben (die PIIGS, kurz für Portugal, Italien, Irland, Griechenland und Spanien) sind in weißen Kästen platziert.
Die Länder außerhalb der Eurozone , die jetzt die dreifache “bis” das Rating beibehalten sind Großbritannien , Dänemark und Schweden (in orange).
The Bank Board of the Czech National Bank at its meeting today decided unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged, ie technical zero. The Board decided to continue to use the exchange rate as an additional tool easing of monetary conditions. Yet confirmed the commitment of the Czech National Bank to intervene if necessary on the foreign exchange market to weaken the exchange rate to maintain the exchange rate against the euro near the level of 27 crowns per euro. The Czech National Bank is in line with that still ready to automatically perform time and volume unlimited intervention. The asymmetric nature of the exchange rate commitment remains unchanged.
This decision is based on the new macroeconomic forecast. It envisages using the exchange rate as an instrument of monetary policy by the middle of 2017. Inflation is starting to rise, however, still significantly below two percent objective of the Czech National Bank. According to the forecast, inflation will continue to increase and the monetary policy horizon slightly exceeds two percent target. To it will then return over 2018 above. Sustainable fulfillment of objectives, which is a prerequisite for a return to normal monetary policy, and according to the new forecast will be starting from mid next year.
The need to keep monetary conditions loose, at least at their current level persists. The Board therefore reiterates that the Czech National Bank does not stop using the exchange rate as an instrument of monetary policy sooner than in the second quarter of 2017. The Board while continuing to see as the likely end of the commitment in mid-2017.
Even if domestic inflation in the third quarter of this year increased slightly, to continue was located well below the objective of the Czech National Bank. Downside cost factors from abroad, but already beginning to fade, and next year their effect wears off. Core inflation indicator, the so-adjusted inflation excluding fuels, while it remains clearly positive. It manifests itself in a positive domestic economic growth and wages. Inflation is due to the above factors will continue to increase and the monetary policy horizon, ie in late 2017 and 2018, slightly exceeds two percent inflation target.
Monetary-policy relevant inflation, ie inflation adjusted for the first-round effects of changes to indirect taxes, will the overall inflation to deviate only slightly. Even if monetary policy and inflation will be at the monetary policy horizon slightly exceeded 2% goals.
Czech economic growth in the second quarter of this year slowed down slightly. For the full year 2016 will reach a pace of 2.8%. The reason for this slowdown is a temporary decrease in government and corporate investments co-financed from European Union funds. On the contrary continue to support the economy loose monetary conditions, low oil prices and growing foreign demand. In the next two years, economic growth will remain at similar pace as this year. On one side will resume increasing investment, but on the other hand, the domestic economy will grow somewhat hampered by a temporary slowdown in foreign demand and eventually less loose monetary conditions after the completion of the exchange rate commitment of the Czech National Bank. Continued economic growth will lead to an increase in wage growth. The unemployment rate will decline only slightly.
The forecast assumes stable market interest rates at the current very low level and use the exchange rate as an instrument of monetary policy by mid 2017. Then, with the forecast consistent increase in market interest rates. Return to normal monetary policy will not lead to a sudden appreciation of slightly overvalued level before starting the intervention of the Czech National Bank. The reason is, among other things, that in the meantime there is a leak weaker koruna exchange rate on the price level and other nominal variables. The Board simultaneously again concluded that the possible appreciation of the exchange rate after leaving commitment to be dampened inter alia by ensuring exchange rate risks by exporters during the commitment period, as well as the closing of koruna positions by financial investors. The Czech National Bank will also be ready to intervene in order to mitigate exchange rate fluctuations.
View the overall monetary policy and inflation, compared with the previous forecast decreased slightly. The forecast for this year’s growth of the Czech economy is slightly revised upwards. For the next two years, by contrast, growth forecasts slightly reduced, in response to the worsening outlook of foreign demand and weaker growth in private investment. After leaving the exchange rate commitment, which continues to forecast expected in mid-2017, interest rates are rising more slowly than in the previous forecast.
The Board assessed the risks of the forecast inflation at the monetary policy horizon as balanced. The uncertainties of the forecast include the refresh rate of growth of government and corporate investment, the impact of the election cycle on expenditure in the discretion of the government, the impact of the outcome of the referendum in the UK and the future of the monetary conditions major central banks.
Dal momento che non possiamo cambiare sono l’ambiente economico così descritto, dobbiamo armarci. Per l’investimento a conseguenze drastiche. In precedenza fatto contanti e obbligazioni, la base per la resa di ogni portafoglio di investimenti. Oggi contanti e obbligazioni dall’altro portare la sicura perdita. I tassi di interesse nominali sono pari a zero o negativo, in modo che invece di un reddito corrente Tali attività derivano costi di gestione. L’aumento dell’inflazione, le banche centrali vuole forzare con la sua politica, il potere d’acquisto del denaro e il valore di rimborso dei titoli sono in aggiunta ancora ridotta. Per gli investitori, questo significa che si deve ridurre la quantità di denaro e obbligazioni in totale attivo al minimo. può essere considerata una regola empirica che lo stock è di incontrare prevedibile nel prossimo alle edizioni medie future.